09/08/2001

Future of devolved NI government hangs in the balance

Despite an IRA’s statement confirming an agreed a scheme with the decommissioning body to put arms completely and verifiably beyond use, the political climate in Northern Ireland far from cooling down, seems to be hotting up.

The Ulster Unionist Party have declared that although the IRA statement is significant, they say it doesn’t go far enough. The Democratic Unionist Party have also echoed this claiming that the statement does not indicate when the IRA will disarm and if indeed they will sacrifice all arms.

Meanwhile both the SDLP and Sinn Féin have welcomed the statement, with Sinn Féin urging unionists to leave the decommissioning issue to General de Chastelain.

With only hours before the Secretary of State must choose whether to dissolve the assembly, crisis talks took place late on Thursday afternoon with Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionist Party meeting Northern Ireland Secretary of State Dr John Reid separate talks.

The options available to the Secretary of State under the Northern Ireland legislature, created by the Good Friday Agreement (1998) are wide ranging with varying degrees of potential impact. Dr Reid could:

· dissolve the assembly and call an election

· call a one-day suspension and gain six weeks for talks

· impose an unlimited suspension and call a review

· combination of suspension, review or election

· try to find another way forward

With June’s double election results showing votes gravitating towards the extreme Sinn Féin and DUP margins, the Ulster Unionist Party will not favour fresh elections, as would the SDLP.

However with none of the pro-Agreement parties accepting the Anglo-Irish package of proposals it seems the most likely move would be to suspend the institutions for one day, allowing all sides six weeks in which to search for a way forward.

Ultimately if the parties want the Northern Ireland Assembly to survive in its current form, they have to elect a first and deputy first minister before midnight on Saturday August 11.

However, the legislation stipulates that due to summer recess, the parties can only be recalled if given 24 hours notice. With the Secretary of State’s mind not made up, British Prime Minister Tony Blair on holiday and time running out, it remains unclear what the next few days will bring. (AMcE)

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