Menu
03/05/2012
UK Economy Will Pick Up In 2012, Says CBI
The UK economy will see growth resume in the second half of 2012, with faster GDP growth during 2013, according to the latest quarterly CBI economic forecast.
The CBI expects GDP growth in 2012 will be 0.6%, slightly down from its forecast in February of 0.9%. This is a direct consequence of the preliminary ONS figure for quarter one. Despite this, growth prospects remain broadly unchanged for the latter half of the year and, in 2013, the CBI forecasts GDP growth to be 2.0%.
Quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be flat in the second quarter of 2012 (0%), affected by the impact of the additional bank holiday for the Diamond Jubilee. However, there will be an improvement in the second half of the year (0.7%, 0.5%), reflecting an improving global economy and an expected easing in inflationary pressures, plus a slight boost from the Olympics and a bounce back from the second quarter.
While inflation is expected to be somewhat higher than previously thought throughout 2012, in part due to recent oil price rises, it should continue on a downward trend and come close to hitting the Bank of England's target in the spring of 2013.
Household spending will remain subdued, with weak wage growth and unemployment rising to a peak of 2.86 million in the first quarter of 2013, but prospects should improve next year as inflation continues to fall further and disposable incomes begin to recover.
As recent surveys have indicated, uncertainty over demand is easing and, as a result, there will be a modest rise in business investment, growing at around 4% in 2012 and 5% next year.
Exports are forecast to see a small rise this year (1.5%), affected by lower levels of economic activity in the Eurozone area, but are expected to increase by around 6% in 2013, as the global economic outlook strengthens.
John Cridland, CBI Director-General, said: "Despite the disappointing GDP estimate for the first quarter from the ONS, we still think the UK economy will grow in 2012, with faster growth next year. Optimism among businesses has been increasing since the turn of the year, with manufacturing demand holding up. And that is beginning to translate into more jobs and investment.
"That said, the global economy continues to pose a number of significant challenges. Concerns over Eurozone stability are on the rise again, oil prices remain high and confidence among businesses and households are still fragile.
"We have always said that the path back to sustainable economic growth will be a long and difficult one, with many bumps along the way. To re-balance our economy towards exports and investment will take time and patience."
(CD/GK)
The CBI expects GDP growth in 2012 will be 0.6%, slightly down from its forecast in February of 0.9%. This is a direct consequence of the preliminary ONS figure for quarter one. Despite this, growth prospects remain broadly unchanged for the latter half of the year and, in 2013, the CBI forecasts GDP growth to be 2.0%.
Quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be flat in the second quarter of 2012 (0%), affected by the impact of the additional bank holiday for the Diamond Jubilee. However, there will be an improvement in the second half of the year (0.7%, 0.5%), reflecting an improving global economy and an expected easing in inflationary pressures, plus a slight boost from the Olympics and a bounce back from the second quarter.
While inflation is expected to be somewhat higher than previously thought throughout 2012, in part due to recent oil price rises, it should continue on a downward trend and come close to hitting the Bank of England's target in the spring of 2013.
Household spending will remain subdued, with weak wage growth and unemployment rising to a peak of 2.86 million in the first quarter of 2013, but prospects should improve next year as inflation continues to fall further and disposable incomes begin to recover.
As recent surveys have indicated, uncertainty over demand is easing and, as a result, there will be a modest rise in business investment, growing at around 4% in 2012 and 5% next year.
Exports are forecast to see a small rise this year (1.5%), affected by lower levels of economic activity in the Eurozone area, but are expected to increase by around 6% in 2013, as the global economic outlook strengthens.
John Cridland, CBI Director-General, said: "Despite the disappointing GDP estimate for the first quarter from the ONS, we still think the UK economy will grow in 2012, with faster growth next year. Optimism among businesses has been increasing since the turn of the year, with manufacturing demand holding up. And that is beginning to translate into more jobs and investment.
"That said, the global economy continues to pose a number of significant challenges. Concerns over Eurozone stability are on the rise again, oil prices remain high and confidence among businesses and households are still fragile.
"We have always said that the path back to sustainable economic growth will be a long and difficult one, with many bumps along the way. To re-balance our economy towards exports and investment will take time and patience."
(CD/GK)
Related UK National News Stories
Click here for the latest headlines.
05 March 2012
UK Economy Faces 'Serious Challenges'
The economy is still facing "serious challenges", and it is predicted that unemployment will increase to almost three million next year. According to research by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) debt levels are still too high and they have downgraded their prediction for UK GDP growth in 2012 to 0.6% (from 0.
UK Economy Faces 'Serious Challenges'
The economy is still facing "serious challenges", and it is predicted that unemployment will increase to almost three million next year. According to research by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) debt levels are still too high and they have downgraded their prediction for UK GDP growth in 2012 to 0.6% (from 0.
03 April 2012
UK Economy Improving, But Growth Still Slow
The UK economy has shown a few signs of improvement in the first three months of this year, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has said. The BCC's new Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) released today shows encouraging results for Q1 2012, with most balances recording increases on the last quarter.
UK Economy Improving, But Growth Still Slow
The UK economy has shown a few signs of improvement in the first three months of this year, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has said. The BCC's new Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) released today shows encouraging results for Q1 2012, with most balances recording increases on the last quarter.
16 January 2004
Boots posts strong growth figures
Boots has followed up yesterday's jobs axe announcement by today posting strong growth figures for the last quarter. Group sales for the third quarter ended 31 December 2003 were up by 5.2%, with like-for-like sales up by 4.1%.
Boots posts strong growth figures
Boots has followed up yesterday's jobs axe announcement by today posting strong growth figures for the last quarter. Group sales for the third quarter ended 31 December 2003 were up by 5.2%, with like-for-like sales up by 4.1%.
13 February 2012
Uncertainty Means Economic Recovery Will Remain Subdued
Growth will restart in 2012, but high levels of uncertainty around the economic outlook, mainly driven by the situation in the euro area, mean growth will remain subdued, particularly in the first half of this year. The CBI expects 0.9% GDP growth in 2012, a little down from November’s forecast (1.
Uncertainty Means Economic Recovery Will Remain Subdued
Growth will restart in 2012, but high levels of uncertainty around the economic outlook, mainly driven by the situation in the euro area, mean growth will remain subdued, particularly in the first half of this year. The CBI expects 0.9% GDP growth in 2012, a little down from November’s forecast (1.
16 November 2011
Central Bank Warns Of Double Dip
The Bank of England is warning of an increased threat of a double-dip recession next year. The bank said there was a greater chance of the economy contracting in the first three quarters of 2012 compared to previous forecasts, noting the eurozone crisis as the biggest threat to the UK.
Central Bank Warns Of Double Dip
The Bank of England is warning of an increased threat of a double-dip recession next year. The bank said there was a greater chance of the economy contracting in the first three quarters of 2012 compared to previous forecasts, noting the eurozone crisis as the biggest threat to the UK.
-
Northern Ireland WeatherToday:A showery start with outbreaks most frequent north of Lough Neagh and through the morning, before dwindling during the afternoon as the northwest breezes ease and brighter spells of weak sunshine prosper. Maximum temperature 8 °C.Tonight:A dry night, save for a few light showers around the coasts, with prolonged clear spells and light winds bringing a frosty dawn for many in central and southern parts. Minimum temperature -3 °C.
