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21/09/2006
Winter forecast is 'finely-balanced'
Predictions for the weather in the UK this winter are "finely-balanced", Met Office forecasters have warned.
In July, the Met Office suggested that this winter would be milder-than-average and wetter than last year.
However, forecasters have now said that the long-range forecast for this winter across the UK indicates near-average temperatures and an approximately even chance of wetter or drier-than-average conditions for the season as a whole.
The Met Office said that the change was partly due to El Nino conditions becoming established in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean which accompanies a reversal in the trade winds.
It affects the weather and climate across many parts of the globe and is the largest climatic event that occurs on a regular basis anywhere on the planet.
Forecasters said that this is helping to produce a winter forecast that is in the balance and said that these influences could shift probabilities to favour a colder outlook, particularly for late winter 2006/7.
Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter.
"However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."
(KMcA/EF)
In July, the Met Office suggested that this winter would be milder-than-average and wetter than last year.
However, forecasters have now said that the long-range forecast for this winter across the UK indicates near-average temperatures and an approximately even chance of wetter or drier-than-average conditions for the season as a whole.
The Met Office said that the change was partly due to El Nino conditions becoming established in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean which accompanies a reversal in the trade winds.
It affects the weather and climate across many parts of the globe and is the largest climatic event that occurs on a regular basis anywhere on the planet.
Forecasters said that this is helping to produce a winter forecast that is in the balance and said that these influences could shift probabilities to favour a colder outlook, particularly for late winter 2006/7.
Rob Varley, Head of the Public Weather Service at the Met Office commented: "In July, we issued a first assessment of the winter. This was based on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) technique and indicated a mild winter.
"However, from September, other forecast data becomes available, allowing us to make a further expert judgement on how the winter is likely to play out. It's interesting to note that the chances of a colder winter have increased slightly in light of recent information, with a focus on the late winter period. We will track this possible trend and update the forecast in coming months as necessary."
(KMcA/EF)
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Northern Ireland WeatherThis Evening and Tonight:A dry night, save for a few light showers around the coasts, with prolonged clear spells and light winds bringing a frosty dawn for many in central and southern parts. Minimum temperature -3 °C.
